Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
